Analytical Exploration of Potential Pathways by which Diabetes Mellitus Impacts Tuberculosis Epidemiology.

We aimed to develop a conceptual framework of diabetes mellitus (DM) effects on tuberculosis (TB) natural history and treatment outcomes, and to assess the impact of these effects on TB-transmission dynamics. The model was calibrated using TB data for India. A conceptual framework was developed based on a literature review, and then translated into a mathematical model to assess the impact of the DM-on-TB effects. The impact was analyzed using TB-disease incidence hazard ratio (HR) and population attributable fraction (PAF) measures. Evidence was identified for 10 plausible DM-on-TB effects. Assuming a flat change of 300% (meaning an effect size of 3.0) for each DM-on-TB effect, the HR ranged between 1.0 (Effect 9-Recovery) and 2.7 (Effect 2-Fast progression); most effects did not have an impact on the HR. Meanwhile, TB-disease incidence attributed directly and indirectly to each effect ranged between -4.6% (Effect 7-TB mortality) and 34.5% (Effect 2-Fast progression). The second largest impact was for Effect 6-Disease infectiousness at 29.9%. In conclusion, DM can affect TB-transmission dynamics in multiple ways, most of which are poorly characterized and difficult to assess in epidemiologic studies. The indirect (e.g. onward transmission) impacts of some DM-on-TB effects are comparable in scale to the direct impacts. While the impact of several effects on the HR was limited, the impact on the PAF was substantial suggesting that DM could be impacting TB epidemiology to a larger extent than previously thought

Study protocol: a randomised controlled trial investigating the effect of exercise training on peripheral blood gene expression in patients with stable angina

Background: Exercise training has been shown to reduce angina and promote collateral vessel development in patients with coronary artery disease. However, the mechanism whereby exercise exerts these beneficial effects is unclear. There has been increasing interest in the use of whole genome peripheral blood gene expression in a wide range of conditions to attempt to identify both novel mechanisms of disease and transcriptional biomarkers. This protocol describes a study in which we will assess the effect of a structured exercise programme on peripheral blood gene expression in patients with stable angina, and correlate this with changes in angina level, anxiety, depression, and exercise capacity. Methods/Design: Sixty patients with stable angina will be recruited and randomised 1: 1 to exercise training or conventional care. Patients randomised to exercise training will attend an exercise physiology laboratory up to three times weekly for supervised aerobic interval training sessions of one hour in total duration. Patients will undergo assessments of angina, anxiety, depression, and peripheral blood gene expression at baseline, after six and twelve weeks of training, and twelve weeks after formal exercise training ceases. Discussion: This study will provide comprehensive data on the effect of exercise training on peripheral blood gene expression in patients with angina. By correlating this with improvement in angina status we will identify candidate peripheral blood transcriptional markers predictive of improvements in angina level in response to exercise training

Segregating the Distinct Effects of Sedentary Behavior and Physical Activity on Older Adults' Cardiovascular Profile: Part 2-Isotemporal Substitution Approach.

The aim of the study was to provide an isotemporal substitution model to predict how changes in physical behavior may affect the cardiovascular parameters (CVPs) of older adults. Methods: Participants wore a thigh-mounted accelerometer for 7 days. Phenotype of the carotid, brachial, and popliteal artery was conducted using ultrasound. Isotemporal substitution was used to simulate the degree to which replacing 1 hour of physical behavior with another would affect CVP. Results: Substitution of sedentary behavior with Standing and sporadic moderate- to vigorous-intensity physical activity (MVPA accumulated in bouts <10 min) would reduce resting heart rate [−6.20 beats per minute (−12.1 to −0.22) and −3.72 beats per minute (−7.01 to −0.44), respectively]. Substitution of sedentary behavior with light-intensity physical activity would reduce carotid artery diameter [−0.54 mm (−1.00 to −0.07)]. Substitution of Standing with sporadic MVPA would increase popliteal artery diameter [1.31 mm (0.11 to 2.51)]. Conclusions: Our modeling suggests that an accumulation of MVPA bouts that are shorter than the recommended 10-minute minimum may still improve CVP, with lower intensity physical activity also influencing CVP. Our findings are a promising avenue for lifestyle interventions in older adults to reduce the aging effects on CVP for those who cannot engage or sustain sufficient MVPA

Effect of subsidies on healthful consumption: a protocol for a systematic review update.

INTRODUCTION: The prevalence of diet-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are rapidly increasing in most parts of the world. In order to ameliorate the related public health burden, evidence-informed policies to improve diet need to be implemented. Financial subsidies that promote healthful consumption patterns have the potential to reduce NCD risk and may also reduce inequality if targeted at those of low socio-economic position. This protocol is for an updated systematic review of such evidence. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A systematic search strategy will be used to identify publications on fiscal intervention studies indexed in Embase, CINAHL, Web of Science, EconLit and PubMed in between January 2013 to February 2019. Two reviewers will independently sift identified citations using prespecified inclusion and exclusion criteria to inform full-text review. The outcomes of interest are: consumption patterns (% change in targeted items and in overall dietary patterns), purchasing patterns (% change) or body mass index. Pretested data capture forms will be used for double data extraction. Any inconsistencies in citation sifting or data extraction will be resolved by a third investigator and study authors will be contacted if needed. Systematic searches will be supplemented by reference checking of key articles. Study quality will be assessed and a narrative summary of findings will be produced. Meta-analyses and exploration of heterogeneity will be completed if appropriate. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The review aims to strengthen findings of the primary studies it incorporates. It will synthesise existing published aggregated patient data and only present further aggregate data. Given this, no concerns are held relating to confidentiality and informed consent due to re-use of patient data.If publications or data with ethical concerns are identified, they will be excluded from the review.Results of the systematic review will be published in full and authors will engage directly with research audiences and key stakeholders to share findings. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42019125013

Observational Properties of Jets in Active Galactic Nuclei

Parsec scale jet properties are shortly presented and discussed. Observational data are used to derive constraints on the jet velocity and orientation, the presence of velocity structures, and the connection between the pc and kpc scale. Two peculiar sources with limb-brightened jets: 1144+35 and Mkn 501 are discussed in detail.Comment: 13 pages with 7 figures. To appear in "Virtual Astrophysical Jets" APSS, Kluwer Academic Publisher - Massaglia, Bodo, Rossi eds - in pres

Responsibility modelling for civil emergency planning

This paper presents a new approach to analysing and understanding civil emergency planning based on the notion of responsibility modelling combined with HAZOPS-style analysis of information requirements. Our goal is to represent complex contingency plans so that they can be more readily understood, so that inconsistencies can be highlighted and vulnerabilities discovered. In this paper, we outline the framework for contingency planning in the United Kingdom and introduce the notion of responsibility models as a means of representing the key features of contingency plans. Using a case study of a flooding emergency, we illustrate our approach to responsibility modelling and suggest how it adds value to current textual contingency plans

Interference coloration as an anti-predator defence

Interference coloration, in which the perceived colour varies predictably with the angle of illumination or observation, is extremely widespread across animal groups. However, despite considerable advances in our understanding of the mechanistic basis of interference coloration in animals, we still have a poor understanding of its function. Here, I show, using avian predators hunting dynamic virtual prey, that the presence of interference coloration can significantly reduce a predator's attack success. Predators required more pecks to successfully catch interference-coloured prey compared with otherwise identical prey items that lacked interference coloration, and attacks against prey with interference colours were less accurate, suggesting that changes in colour or brightness caused by prey movement hindered a predator's ability to pinpoint their exact location. The pronounced antipredator benefits of interference coloration may explain why it has evolved independently so many times. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved

Predicting Distribution of Aedes Aegypti and Culex Pipiens Complex, Potential Vectors of Rift Valley Fever Virus in Relation to Disease Epidemics in East Africa.

The East African region has experienced several Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks since the 1930s. The objective of this study was to identify distributions of potential disease vectors in relation to disease epidemics. Understanding disease vector potential distributions is a major concern for disease transmission dynamics. DIVERSE ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELLING TECHNIQUES HAVE BEEN DEVELOPED FOR THIS PURPOSE: we present a maximum entropy (Maxent) approach for estimating distributions of potential RVF vectors in un-sampled areas in East Africa. We modelled the distribution of two species of mosquitoes (Aedes aegypti and Culex pipiens complex) responsible for potential maintenance and amplification of the virus, respectively. Predicted distributions of environmentally suitable areas in East Africa were based on the presence-only occurrence data derived from our entomological study in Ngorongoro District in northern Tanzania. Our model predicted potential suitable areas with high success rates of 90.9% for A. aegypti and 91.6% for C. pipiens complex. Model performance was statistically significantly better than random for both species. Most suitable sites for the two vectors were predicted in central and northwestern Tanzania with previous disease epidemics. Other important risk areas include western Lake Victoria, northern parts of Lake Malawi, and the Rift Valley region of Kenya. Findings from this study show distributions of vectors had biological and epidemiological significance in relation to disease outbreak hotspots, and hence provide guidance for the selection of sampling areas for RVF vectors during inter-epidemic periods

Surveillance strategies for Classical Swine Fever in wild boar – a comprehensive evaluation study to ensure powerful surveillance

Surveillance of Classical Swine Fever (CSF) should not only focus on livestock, but must also include wild boar. To prevent disease transmission into commercial pig herds, it is therefore vital to have knowledge about the disease status in wild boar. In the present study, we performed a comprehensive evaluation of alternative surveillance strategies for Classical Swine Fever (CSF) in wild boar and compared them with the currently implemented conventional approach. The evaluation protocol was designed using the EVA tool, a decision support tool to help in the development of an economic and epidemiological evaluation protocol for surveillance. To evaluate the effectiveness of the surveillance strategies, we investigated their sensitivity and timeliness. Acceptability was analysed and finally, the cost-effectiveness of the surveillance strategies was determined. We developed 69 surveillance strategies for comparative evaluation between the existing approach and the novel proposed strategies. Sampling only within sub-adults resulted in a better acceptability and timeliness than the currently implemented strategy. Strategies that were completely based on passive surveillance performance did not achieve the desired detection probability of 95%. In conclusion, the results of the study suggest that risk-based approaches can be an option to design more effective CSF surveillance strategies in wild boar

A review of the prevalence of sedentarism in older adults, its physiology/health impact and non-exercise mobility counter-measures

This literature review focuses on aspects of sedentary behaviour (SB) in elderly. Since it has been identified as a distinct health risk, independent of physical activity, SB is demonstrating as being a significant issue. This is particularly true for an ageing population as evidence shows that older adults (aged ≥65 years) are the most sedentary age group (on average 8.5-9.6 hours daily sitting time). Accurate SB assessment is important for understanding this habitual behaviour and its impact. However, SB measurement is challenging, regardless of the method used. Although negative associations of SB in elderly have been reported for several health outcomes, evidence is inconclusive, apart from the evidence on the adverse SB effect on the all-cause mortality rate. Generally, strategies have been proposed to counteract SB, of which breaking prolonged sedentary bouts with at least light-intensity physical activity seems to be the most promising. Overall, further research in elderly is required to increase the evidence and to either support or refute the current findings. Moreover, further research will help to develop informed SB guidelines for an optimal strategy to counteract SB and its health effects in older adults